SUNDAY DARE: TINUBU’S POLICIES YIELDING POSITIVE IMPACT. (PHOTO).

 Sunday Dare: Tinubu’s policies yielding positive impact

Sunday Dare is President Bola Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Media and Public Communications. In this interview with the TVC, he discusses how the president’s policies have been shaping Nigeria’s economy. He also explains why Nigerians must leverage trade and investments in what they produce, among other issues.

African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA), I know it’s the way to go. They just concluded the Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF) and all of that. A lot of discussions around Nigeria’s economy. You said it’s key. Is Nigeria ready to play in this market?

 Nigeria is already playing in that market. I know quite a number of legislations have been gazetted under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. An air cargo corridor for the ease of goods and services into the country has also been opened. So Nigeria is already a player. Don’t forget, beyond the continental partnership, there’s the regional, which is the ECOWAS protocol on free movement of goods and services. All the encumbrances that have held it down over time. Of course, we know that there’s been a movement towards a common currency, which has been impeded. But in spite of that, now we have the PAPS payment system, Pan-African payment, which is novel. There’s also the volume of $2 billion under AFTA, where countries can pull in order to boost trade. So Nigeria is already plugged in, no doubt about it.

 It’s a good way to start our conversation, but leveraging on trade and investment, and where our capacity, where our strength is, what would you say about our manufacturers and what Nigeria really has to export out?

 Well, first, there are strong indicators. Last week, we ended with a 67% increase in manufactured goods. A very strong indicator. We ended last week with another strong indicator in terms of trade surplus. You know, you look at the balance of import and export. The bane of our economy has always been that imports far outstrip exports. Now, these figures are telling us two key things: that importation and consumption of imported goods are coming down, while Nigerians are beginning to consume more of what we produce. And that’s why we have the balance, the surplus balance of trade of 7.4 billion. Now, that’s coming just two years under the reforms. It says a lot.

That means the reforms introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu are beginning to make an impact.

 IETF is coming to Nigeria in 2027. What is Nigeria going to benefit from this?

 The minister has a hand wrapped around it. Let me take you back a bit. When Nigeria, particularly President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, was picked about a year ago as an AFTA champion, remember that it didn’t just come simply as a dash. It was based on the policies and initiatives, and what the Honorable Minister of Trade and Investment had articulated. Of course, you know that she’s on top of her game, and I think Nigeria is ready.

Why did you say Nigeria is ready? In Ibadan, last week, we saw that out of 519 states in the African continent, Oyo State was the first to set up or to sign that protocol, the implementation strategy, and the focus was on leveraging what to produce. I did say on Friday that we needed to return to when we had the cocoa-driven economy, the groundnut-driven economy, the palm oil-driven economy, away from the oil-driven economy. And we’re beginning to see that diversification.

 Under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, we’ve had the return of the commodity boards. The cocoa commodity board is back. The grain board is coming back. So the whole idea is that you must leverage what you produce. Develop a value chain that adds value to what you produce.

And when you export eventually, the revenue that comes in can be plugged back into growth and development for your economy.

Let me take you to the reforms. We’ve seen two years now, bold steps taken by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

 But according to the figures that we see, inflation, GDP growth figures, and even from the likes of the IMF and World Bank, we continue to see a positive outlook. What is your overview of where we stand at the moment?

 Absolutely. I think that when you look at the figures, I call them the green numbers, both monetary and fiscal figures, you get comfort from the fact that these policies that we have had are beginning to impact very well. Oftentimes, it takes about three years before you really get the impact showing. But this time around, because of the strength and the potential of our economy, and because of the timeliness of those reforms, imagine if President Bola Ahmed Tinubu did not go ahead to remove the subsidy in oil, or did not go ahead to unify the forex market, where would we be? We’re at the point now that we have the volatility is gone in the forex market.

We’re down to 1,500, 1,510. Almost every day, it was shooting up 1,700. So there’s stability, and we must recognise that. There’s also overall stability in the economy, and we have to also recognise that. So these policies are playing well.

We started with oil subsidy removal. We hit 1,250 per litre. What the market says in terms of competition, market forces that, over time, if well implemented, you will see a drop. We’re now down to 820 as of yesterday, when Dangote brought down his own price.

Now, when you look across the sub-region, our own price per litre is still the lowest. Forget what some pundits have said out there. You go to Ghana, it’s 1,990. You go to Kenya, the height is about 2,000. So we’re still selling our own oil. The pump price is still the lowest, and it will still go lower.

 So you think that there is competition as expected in a deregulated market? Are you saying that is happening in Nigeria?

 You see, the rules cannot change for Nigeria. The rules of engagement when it comes to competition, when it comes to unleashing market forces, when it comes to the government taking its hand off completely and allowing the market forces to play their role, that’s what we see in the forex market. That’s what we see in the oil production market. It goes back to what we all learned in school. Supply and demand determine the price. And that’s what we’re seeing. Nigeria is returning to the principles of the 21st-century market economy. And you look at our tax act that has come into force right now. You look at the internally generated revenue. We’ve even met our target. Never, never in a long time has that ever happened. So you’re seeing the recalibration of the economy, the re-engineering of the levers that we need to push. And you need a bold president who understands the dynamics of the 21st-century modern economy to make those decisions.

 So achieving our revenue target in August, from the non-oil space, is brilliant.  Our budget is still above about N54.56 trillion. Which is insufficient for a population of 230 million? How are we going to get the balance?

 Well, no country ever balances. About two weeks ago, there was this debate about loans, foreign loans and the rest. The foreign debt of America is $37 trillion. Capitalism is fueled and funded by loans and credits. Then you look at our debt, our tax to debt ratio, or our debt to GDP ratio, we’re still, you know, sub 40, sub 41. South Africa is 70%, and Ghana is 90%. We’re still within the threshold. So you see, borrowing is a legitimate tool for growth and development. That’s the standard across the world. These rules cannot change. We’re going through a rough patch. Nigerians are going through a rough patch, but it’s a patch that is necessary.

 You talked about the tax laws, which are also very key. Implementation should start by 2026. 2026 is a pre-election year. Many are already talking about the fossil fuel 5 per cent tax…

 That’s settled. It was there before 2007. The FEMA Act is there. And there’s a clarity, you know. I think this government, under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is very upfront, and we must admit that. When there’s a controversy, when there’s a misunderstanding about a particular issue, the government is upfront in making sure that the facts are laid on the table. And where it remains so controversial, the president, as shown, can withdraw from that.

Look at the 5% on telecoms. You know, the debate was on, and he pulled it back. Look at the CBN tax, whatever. That’s a president who is at home with his people, who has empathy, who understands that at some point, you need to pull back a bit to allow the people to ease off some of the burdens. And that’s what we’re seeing now. So the 5% thing on fossil tax won’t come. But also importantly, he said, unless the Minister of Finance writes to the president to say, bring it back or activate it, it won’t happen. So I think, as far as I’m concerned, Nigerians need not worry. There’s no additional 5% tax.

 But what do you think of the implementation of the entire document, in its entirety, from 2026? Yes, the tax laws.

 When you look at it from the point of its introduction, you saw the debate it generated, which President Bola Ahmed Tinubu welcomed. Even though there were efforts to pull it back, it did what was right constitutionally. He said, Let it go to the people’s parliament. Let it be debated at the public hearing. Let it go to the House of Representatives. Let it go through the Senate. Let it go through the rubric of the democratic process and legislation. That’s what happened. From governors, civil society groups, individuals, media houses, and all parties came up with their comments there. Eventually, what we got was a pre-signed document in line with the tax regimes we’ve seen in others. As we speak, Brazil, after 40 years, now has a new tax system that will come into effect in 2026, maybe 2027 or thereabouts. So that document is ready to be implemented because it’s a pre-signed document that has taken care of what is necessary in our tax system.

 So many would say, What is the government really doing specifically to address the yearnings of the people? The macro seems to be working. What about the micro?

 In economies where you have the kind of reforms that have been onboarded under the administration, where you find similar reforms, what happens? You create a social safety net, which is what Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala did at the World Bank. And what they’ve been saying is that you have to put a social safety net measure in place. They’re saying there’s a need to scale it up. FG has disbursed N330 billion to 8.1 million households under the National Social Safety Net Programme, providing N25,000 monthly to eligible families to alleviate the effects of economic reforms. That’s part of a social safety net.

The Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) is subsidising the education of our young ones. Apart from paying their school fees, they also get a N20,000 stipend, which is a safety net for our young people.

Then you come to health. We have about 5,000 primary health centres. Over 1,000 are already reinvigorated. You have the National Health Insurance Scheme, which the president has directed should come back.

So you’re beginning to see what has been saved from subsidy.

 Did you expect that the fallout of the removal of the subsidy would be as bad as this? Many would say you were in the last administration?

 Don’t forget that with the last administration, the subsidy was in play. You could become an instant billionaire once you had the license to import fuel. But when the new administration came, it changed the policy.

I think one of the biggest social safety programmes that we’ll experience eventually, which is already coming up, is the Renewed Hope Ward-Based Development Programme (RHWDP), which the president announced about three and a half weeks ago, designed to empower 8.8 million Nigerians across the country’s 8,809 electoral wards. This initiative aims to stimulate economic growth, generate employment, reduce poverty, enhance food security, and improve social protection at the grassroots level.

The programme targets at least 1,000 economically active individuals in each ward, providing them with support to boost economic activity. It is a collaborative effort between federal, state, and local governments, funded through increased revenues in the Federation Account and supported by various development initiatives.

 What that does is two things. It brings the kind of development and empowerment we want, bottom up.

 It also helps us now deal with the urban, the rural-urban drift. It gives us the possibility of a reversal.

It’s always a multifaceted approach. There’s no silver bullet when it comes to this.

Now, we have an administration that is looking at all possible points, all possible valves to make sure that this economy is reinvigorated, but also takes care of the vulnerable- the women and the young people.

 If properly managed, I think it is also something that is key.

 Yeah, it is. Best policies often suffer and die on the basis of implementation. And I think that this administration is mindful of this implementation. That’s why, as policies are announced, over time, you also see the process of implementation.

 President Tinubu is always talking about agriculture and food security.

 He talks about it. It’s at the top of the agenda.

 Where are we now? Mechanization? Insecurity is also something that is heating the farms.

 He was on a trip to Brazil; during that trip, he signed five major MOUs. One of them has to do with agriculture. Recall that we have the  Green Imperative Project (GIP) with Brazil, which is 1.1 billion, signed in 2019, but now fully in effect. And you’re looking at job creation of almost 100,000 and over half a million indirect jobs. You’re looking at full mechanisation, partnership with Nigeria. That is already in place.

The Minister of Agriculture spoke three days ago about a rise and spoke to the fact that fertilisers for the planting season were shared free across the country by this government. Now, when you look at farming and agriculture, you’re looking at two key inputs. You’re looking at the fertiliser input to boost production. We are also looking at pest control. Part of the understanding with Brazil is their pest control system, which is about the most advanced. So, the right partnerships have been signed.

From Belarus, the other time, we had 2,000 tractors and about 20,000 farm implements, which were launched in Abuja by Mr President.

Now, connect that with what is happening in the cocoa belt of the Southwest or the grain belt of Birnin-Gwari in Kaduna, and the rest, where now we have millionaires. Unlike before. TVC had a compelling story about that.

And I think that it’s important to note that the mop-up when it comes to security with regard to agriculture is taking place gradually. Again, I say there’s no silver bullet when it comes to insecurity, but you see a government adept at mopping up all the insecure areas and opening the path for our farmers to stay longer on the farm. And I think we’ve seen that the prices of food are coming down, farmers are returning to their farms, and the fight against insurgency will continue.

 We expect the inflation figure for the month of August to be out anytime soon.

 But we’re happy it’s been easing off.

 Yeah, gradually.

 It is, yeah. We started from as high as 34 per cent.