Governor Makinde and his 2027 gamble
By Tunde Rahman
The race to the presidency in 2027 is getting more exciting. Last Thursday, May 14, 2026, at the ancient Mapo Hall in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital, Governor Seyi Makinde formally threw his hat into the ring and organised a spectacle that could only have been funded by Oyo State taxpayers' money.
His declaration to contest for the topmost office in the forthcoming general election, however, is anything but surprising. Some political watchers had long sensed where he might be headed, given the somewhat convoluted politics that have seen him taking several seemingly contradictory and illegal steps. What was unknown and unclear was which platform the "outgoing landlord of Agodi Government House" would contest on. His Peoples Democratic Party is, after all, still enmeshed in crisis, wherein his camp holds a short end of the political stick.
But let me state clearly from the outset that I disagree with renowned activist and politician Senator Shehu Sani’s claim that during the late President Muhammadu Buhari's presidency, many Northerners would not even dare to contest him, believing the region was entitled to its eight years in office. Sound and convincing as Senator Sani's argument seems to be, apparently alluding to an attitude akin to that of a misguided child standing in and urinating inside a family pot he will drink from, I believe Governor Makinde is perfectly entitled to his decision and declaration to contest.
President Bola Tinubu welcomes Governor Makinde's decision. He will be waiting to square up against him on January 15, 2027, if the latter can muster the conviction and work his way down to the final political wire. His entry has now increased the number of contestants to six or so, namely President Tinubu, former vice president Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra State governor Peter Obi, former Minister of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi, Alhaji Mohammed Hayatudeen, Makinde and maybe former President Goodluck Jonathan.
Governor Makinde says he will run on the PDP-APM alliance platform – whatever that means. He is one of the leaders of the Turaki-led faction of the PDP, which is still hanging in the balance, as the court has yet to fully settle the leadership supremacy battle. Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed is also a member of the Allied People's Movement.
The Oyo State governor has been rather sanctimonious since he joined the race. At a rally he dubbed "Unity Mega Rally," he called for national unity against what he christened "one-party rule," saying claims that the opposition cannot unite are a miscalculation, apparently suggesting he could unite the opposition.
While speaking at an All Opposition Summit he hosted in Ibadan on April 25, 2026, Makinde waxed reckless, desperate and dangerous, in a puerile attempt to hide behind a finger. He threatened fire and brimstone and openly called for violence, warning President Tinubu and the governing APC to remember that the “wild, wild West” of the First Republic started in Ibadan.
Many analysts and commentators, including the deep and incisive Segun Ayobolu writing in his column "Illuminations" condemned Makinde for his misguided comparison, saying there is no basis to compare the present political situation in the country, where political parties and opposition politicians are freely assembling and canvassing their views and positions, to the wave of violence that engulfed the Western Region in 1964-65, which directly led to the collapse of the First Republic. That episode, caused by a toxic mix of intra-party betrayal in the Action Group and rigged elections, particularly the 1964 Federal Election and 1965 Western Regional Elections, was characterised by widespread electoral fraud, ballot box snatching, voter intimidation and violence perpetrated by members of the late Chief Ladoke Akintola’s NNDP-NPC Alliance. This angered the people and made them feel their votes didn't count.
The question of a disputed election in 2027 is far-fetched, as there is nothing to suggest that, except in the warped imagination of people like Governor Makinde.
Makinde's political inanities aside, many in the state concede that the Oyo State governor has done well in terms of providing infrastructure for the state. However, balancing politics with policy remains important. Mere grandstanding and posturing like a strongman can never be deemed a virtue.
At their summit in Ibadan, the opposition politicians resolved to work towards fielding a single presidential candidate in 2027. How Makinde's entry into the race will help that course is yet unclear.
Governor Makinde is battling to foist his successor on the state in 2027 and, in the same breath, wants to be president.
What are his chances? How far he can go in the race is a matter of conjecture, as he lacks a strong political base outside of Ibadan. He claims to be running on the PDP-APM alliance, yet his only support across the Niger, in the North, is perhaps his connection with Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed.
I haven’t yet seen any politician burn political bridges as whimsically and recklessly as Makinde does. This is particularly exemplified in how he has ditched many allies who helped him into office, including Senator Hosea Agboola alias Alleluya, Chief Bisi Ilaka and Hon. Babs Oduyoye, his former Political Adviser. Another case in point is how his relationship with former Rivers State governor Nyesom Wike has gone sour, to the extent that the two are today at daggers drawn. In the run-up to the 2023 elections. Wike left Port Harcourt to come and root for Makinde’s re-election in Ibadan.
As the timeless maxim instructs, to thyself be true. I think Governor Makinde knows too well that he is on a wild goose chase. He is only indulging himself. What he is engaging in is a mere political gamble. My worry for him is when all else is done, when all the chips are down, when the battle is lost and won, his reputation would have been badly damaged, his legacy, if any, rubbished, his influence and relevance gone, and his place in history and reckoning within the Yoruba race sullied.
*Rahman is Senior Special Assistant to President Tinubu on Media & Special Duties.
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