Hormuz shipping traffic nears three-month low as US-Iran deal remains uncertain
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to nearly a three-month low as uncertainty grows over whether the United States and Iran can reach an agreement to fully reopen the critical oil shipping route.
An average of about 13 vessels passed through the strait over the five days ending Tuesday, close to the lowest level recorded since May 12. The figure includes all types of commercial vessels, including cargo ships and oil tankers.
Traffic is roughly 90% below the average of about 130 ships that crossed Hormuz each day before the United States and Israel launched attacks against Iran on Feb. 28.
Despite the sharp decline in vessel traffic, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil shipments through the strait have averaged nearly 9 million barrels per day over the past week. Tankers have been using the waterway with assistance from the U.S. military.
A single supertanker can transport roughly 2 million barrels of oil. When pipeline shipments are included, oil exports from Gulf countries are averaging about 15 million barrels per day, compared with roughly 20 million barrels of crude and petroleum products that moved through Hormuz before the conflict.
Wright has also argued that some vessels are not being counted because they are traveling covertly through the waterway.
Iranian officials, meanwhile, have indicated that the strait will not be fully reopened until the United States agrees to Tehran’s demands.
The uncertainty comes after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that a deal to restore freedom of movement for ships through Hormuz could be reached soon. His comments contributed to a decline in oil prices, but no agreement has materialized.
The two countries reached an interim agreement on June 17 aimed at reopening the strait. Ship traffic subsequently climbed to an average of about 60 vessels over five days by June 26.
That agreement later broke down as the United States and Iran disputed the routes ships would be allowed to use. The original agreement did not clearly define the shipping corridors.
Iran subsequently attacked tankers traveling along a route protected by the United States near Oman. The Trump administration responded with more than a dozen rounds of strikes against Iran and reinstated a naval blockade.
President Donald Trump has shifted back toward diplomacy in recent weeks, but the extent of progress remains unclear. Tuesday’s vessel traffic was about 80% below the peak reached after the interim agreement.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important energy corridors, making continued restrictions on shipping a major concern for global oil markets and the broader economy.
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